Marco Giulio Barone French footprint in Africa Less boots on the ground, weaker economic ties In 1979, French diplomat Louis de Guiringaud stated that “Africa is the only continent that is still within France’s reach, within its means. The only one where it can still, with 500 men, change the course of history. “ Notwithstanding the apparent affordability of French power politics in Africa, any time Paris wanted to have an impact on African politics it had to engage considerable economic resources and military power, and to put at stake its reputation. The most recent decisions taken by France have a taste of a complete debacle, as military presence decreases, and economic ties are left to private initiative. As the US, China, Russia, India but also Singapore, Germany, Italy, and Turkey pledge political and financial capital to the continent, it seems that France has no longer the means to maintain its reach. During his tour of several Central African countries, President Emmanuel Macron announced changes to the French military presence on the continent. The French order of battle in the region should be reviewed in depth, with a drastic reduction in manpower. Faced with an increasingly contested presence, the Élysée has opted for a military deployment below the threshold of visibility. In concrete terms, military bases in Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire and Gabon should see their manpower drop by 70%, with no more than 300 soldiers per base in the future. Instead, the 2,500 French soldiers deployed to Chad and Niger are not affected at this stage. Niger is now the main French stronghold in the Sahel area, since the French army was expelled from Mali, as have been special forces from Burkina Faso. Last December, the French army also had to abandon Bangui (Central African Republic). Djibouti, with its 1,500 troops, will mainly serve the new focus on the Indo-Pacific region. The reorganisation will therefore concern West Africa, where the French military presence will likely be transformed into military academies. Bilateral discussions are underway, but the significant reduction in the number of troops seems to have been decided and could worry African, European, and American partners, who until now have seen Paris as a security provider in the region. The French military is not happy with the current situation, as the new posture poses a logistical problem should it be called to intervene effectively in the event of a crisis. The lack of Close Air Support (CAS) is especially deplored, as aircraft should come directly from France, meaning several hour-long missions and attrition for fighters and tankers. The military withdrawal is just the tip of the iceberg. In twenty years, France’s decline in its former colonies - where it was in a position of strength - is considerable. According to figures published by French economic magazine Challenges, between 2002 and 2021 French economic activities have fallen by 14% in Senegal and by 10% in Côte d’Ivoire and Morocco, historical strongholds of French companies. On the whole continent, French companies have seen their market share fall from 10.6% to 4.4%. A decline that has benefited newcomers like China, that in the same period has multiplied by five its market share (18.8% today). Macron promises that business will be at the core of the new strategy, and that France will be an economic actor benefitting of African growth without paying for the security bill. Meanwhile, the issue is barely visible in the political debate, as public opinion and politicians are stuck in internal issues (health system, retirement, taxes, as usual…). The official narrative is that “the end of Françafrique” and the new approach is a response to the wave of anti-French sentiment in the Sahel. Plenty of French analysts, researchers, and specialists point out that Africa will remain important to France and that Paris is not going to withdraw from the continent. The current move would therefore be just a “change of tone”. Unfortunately, facts and figures tell a different story. The ingredients to gain influence in a region are basically three: culture, economics, and military strength. From a cultural point of view, France does no longer appear seductive. On the contrary, African leaders often bemoan French double standards, contradictions, arrogance, and air of superiority, not only at the governmental level, but also in the daily attitude of French workers, citizens, and tourists. And this feeling grows along with African countries’ ambitions and social and economic development. Economic leverages are no longer effective, as French approach is about bringing as much money as possible to France thanks to investment in Africa – and Macron’s approach keeps going in this sense. Usually, gaining influence passes through the opposite (at least initial) move, namely pledging more money to the desired area to foster its development. Economic return (if any) is an indirect consequence of the political-economic success of such an approach. Lastly, the lost of the role of security provider may bring some spare funds in the short term, but it contributes to decrease the overall French relevance in the region and loosens the Paris’ grip on local politics, thus raising the risk of major instability in critical areas (and next to key supply chains!). For decades, France has lived off its past political, economic, and security capital pledged to the continent. However, that edge is now over, and it is time to reinvest or leave. While proclaiming a new wealth of (private) investment, the new strategy for Africa looks very much like a retreat. Marco Giulio Barone is Editor-in-Chief of Military Technology. 6 · MT 2/2023 Observations from Paris (Photo: Marco Giulio Barone)
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