Marty Kauchak President Biden – Don’t Forget About Iran While the US focuses on peer competitors China and Russia, Iran is bolstering its military capabilities and presence in contested ‘hot spots’ throughout the Middle East. Of increasing concern, the US remains estranged from Iran, and appears to be cobbling together disparate policy approaches to the Islamic Republic in response to shifting strategic events. The US is providing healthy doses of kinetic and non-kinetic materiel to Ukraine, as well as intelligence and other support, as that nation continues its multi-front war against a brazen and persistent Russian invasion force. At the same time, think tanks and other defence stakeholders inside the Washington, DC Beltway – and US war colleges – are running wargames with evolving scenarios based on dynamic Chinese threats – from economic sanctions and blockades, to a full-scale invasion – against Taiwan. While the US focuses like a laser on China and Russia in terms of military, diplomatic and economic developments, Iran has become an increasingly visible player in the Middle East and remains, in many cases, a challenger to US vital interests. Emboldened by the US’s humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, Iran is successfully entrenching itself with powerful proxies and partners in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, and elsewhere in the region – certainly convincing the Islamic Republic of its own successes, and serving as one impediment to the Biden administration’s efforts to resuscitate the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement that President Donald Trump withdrew from. Beyond alliance building and like strategies, Iran, while facing down US and other Western sanctions, is becoming an increasingly capable defence supplier. One glimpse of the nation’s prowess displayed this past July, when no less a pundit than US National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, in an open-source briefing, said Iran was preparing to provide Russia with hundreds of drones, some capable of being armed with weapons. Another outcome of deepening defence-industrial relations between Russia and Iran was evident this August, when the former launched an Islamic Republic satellite into orbit. Together, these two developments do not provide the underpinnings for an emergent peer-level competitor, this one in the Middle East, to the US. What the outcomes do support, however, is the thesis that economic sanctions and similar coercive policies may, in the short term, force a nation and its population to pay some high costs. However, on their own, they do not help to unseat authoritative regimes – or even dramatically modify their behaviors. This is Not the Cold War There are stark, night-and-day differences in the strategic calculus of the Cold War-era between the US and the former Soviet Union, and that of the current US-Iranian relationship. While competitors, the US and former USSR each enjoyed a robust diplomatic presence in the others’ countries, well beyond Washington, DC and Moscow. Further, the US had a strong cadre of trained Russian linguists and area specialists – both in the federal government and in industry. Fast forward to 2022, when the US remains absent from Tehran since the US embassy’s seizure in 1979, and there is a worrying dearth of individuals in the federal government with in-country experience, much less fluent in Farsi and other languages and dialects spoken in Iran. What’s the Biden Administration To Do? While there remain tantalizing, incremental prospects of a nuclear deal with Iran, the four-decade old Islamic Republic appears unwilling and incapable of establishing normal relations with the US. Accordingly, the near-term prospects are bleak for repeat diplomatic surprises, along the lines of President Nixon’s trip to China. Neither are there prospects for the likes of McDonald’s, Ford and other prominent US companies establishing an economic beachhead in Tehran and elsewhere in the Islamic Republic in the near-term. Much like other US administrations since 1979, the Biden administration is hampered by a lack of in-depth understanding of Iran and its leaders, and instead is being forced to pick and chose from soundbites and suggestions of two competing camps inside and outside the White House. Liberals offer that engaging Iran may soften the regime’s ideology and encourage the nation’s moderates. Conservatives argue that a tougher strategy could contribute to the current regime’s implosion. Neither strategy has worked. The Biden administration’s policy roadmap with Iran is well-marked and crystal clear. This administration must continue to negotiate with Iran and address that nation’s nuclear program and related, contentious, bi-lateral policy issues. At the same time, the US must strengthen its multi-lateral military alliances in the Middle East, which should increasingly include Israel and other regional nations that view Iran as a threat. The US would also be advised to diversify and increase its efforts to wear down an Iranian theocracy and its population, that remain beset by economic failure, a brain drain of its best and brightest citizens and other woes. And who knows: perhaps people-to-people contacts, featuring BigMacs for lunch at a new McDonald’s in central Tehran, would also provide much-needed baby steps toward a societal and governmental thaw between the US and Iran? Marty Kauchak, based in New Orleans, is MilTech’s North American Bureau Chief. 52 · MT 5/2022 Letter from America
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