Strategic Focus MT 5/2022 · 53 Tomás Chlebecek Threat Matrix: Past, Present and Future Challenges Converge Recent events have highlighted key lessons learned from past armed conflicts. While it is prudent to prepare for the most evident and pressing threats of tomorrow (China over Taiwan), it would be futile to downplay major threats of yesterday (global jihadism). However, the surest way to prevail against both is to succeed against the challenges of today (Russia in Ukraine). Infinite Reach – Indefinite Mission On the counter-terrorism front, the US recently achieved one of its key tactical successes since 9/11. Ayman al-Zawahiri (71), the most elusive terrorist leader in modern history and the head of al-Qaeda (AQ), was killed in Afghanistan by a CIA drone strike (31 July). A lifelong militant, he spent decades on the run, lately with a $25 million price on his head. His elimination follows the killings of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (2006), Osama bin Laden (2011) and the two leaders of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) – Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (2019) and Abu Ibrahim al-Qurayshi (3 February). With his passing, the original AQ leadership is finally gone. Despite Zawahiri‘s divisive personality and lack of charisma, his place in the global jihadist movement as bin Laden‘s ideologue, deputy and successor loomed large. Although he leaves a leadership vacuum, the network‘s centre of gravity long ago moved to its regional affiliates. The operation bears distinct similarities with previous decapitation strikes. Zawahiri‘s presence in a safe house in the affluent Sherpur area of Kabul, curiously owned by a senior Taliban and Haqqani network official, was identified by US intelligence early this year. Months of persistent surveillance revealed daily routines of its inhabitants in an effort to avoid civilian casualties. As in 2011, 2019 and in February, operational planning included preparation of a tabletop scale model for decision-makers and a structural assessment of the building to prevent its collapse. Top national security officials were briefed (April), various strike options were carefully evaluated (May–June) and the final go-ahead was given by President Joe Biden only after extensive deliberations (July). Unlike in those instances, the US administration opted for a stand-off drone strike instead of a complex and high-risk raid by Special Mission Units (SMU) of the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC). The sword of American justice came from the air in the form of two AGM-114R9X Hellfire ‚Flying Ginsu‘ missiles. A kinetic strike killed Zawahiri on the second floor balcony, avoiding any harm to his family members, as there were no other casualties. The operation highlighted unmatched ISR capabilities and an extraordinary level of care to prevent collateral damage. It is also an expression of the emerging Biden administration‘s over-the-horizon CT posture after the withdrawal from Afghanistan (August 2021). Eliminating terrorist leadership is crucial, not just to degrade its operational command and control, but also from the symbolic perspective, as neither AQ nor ISIS ever recovered from the loss of their founders. Worlds Apart Russia‘s military power, unleashed for the last seven months on Ukraine, is beyond recognition in comparison. Its disastrous campaign continues, bringing more of the same – strategic impotence, operational incompetence, tactical blunders, abhorrent casualties (on both sides) and wholesale destruction. There might be Rumsfeld‘s ‚unknown unknowns‘ about the war, but some key facts are crystal clear. Who started it, who has committed unspeakable atrocities during the conflict? Who created all its ripple effects, including the fastest and largest refugee wave since World War II, and a global energy and food crisis, the full extent of which we may yet not know? Russia alone. Did Ukraine pose any reasonable danger to Moscow? None, as its prospects for joining the EU and NATO were uncertain and years or even decades in the making. Does the Kremlin‘s way of war work against Ukraine? Is Russia achieving its strategic aims? No, it only makes resistance stronger, more determined and the endgame as elusive as ever. The longer it takes for Russia‘s delusional leadership to realize that, the higher the price will be for its abysmal strategic miscalculations, intelligence failures, military disasters and war crimes. It already is catastrophic across domains – military, political, economic, as well as tarnished reputation. The fact that the Kremlin has not yet fully grasped the consequences of its adventurism does not make gigantic blunders any smaller. History teaches us those ignoring the calamities of the past are condemned to repeat them in the future. While the Cold War, 9/11, Iraq and Afghanistan are powerful cautionary tales – but rapidly fading from our collective memory – the bloodshed overwhelming Ukraine is ever present. If anyone dares to think these experiences can be ignored, think again. The Cold War was a sustained, multi-generational campaign, as is the ‚Global War on Terrorism‘. While the current struggle against Russia may still evolve into similar dimensions, it is the best way to prevent competition with China descending into a comparable mess. In strategic terms, catering to immediate needs often shortchanges the future for the present. However, in war, there is no substitute for victory. Tomás Chlebecek reports regularly on issues strategic, Russian and Chinese for MilTech.
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