Feature MT 3/2022 · 17 An armoured recovery vehicle version of the immortal BMP-1 in Poland during a NATO exercise. Hundreds of MBPs are still in service across Europe and need urgent replacement. Meanwhile, European companies keep struggling to expand and introduce economies of scale. In the last two years, European companies seemed to win numerous international competitions. However, several CEOs suggested that such orders should be interpreted as an attempt to regain previously lost ground, rather than a true expansion in backlogs. As far as domestic demand is concerned, according to the European Parliament’s study Mapping the Costs of Non-Europe 2019-2024, although EU member states collectively spend the second largest budget in the world on defence (over €220 billion per year), the fragmentation of armed forces and military procurement leads to redundancies, whereas greater cooperation would lead to greater efficiency, especially if supported by standardisation of equipment and specialisation of tasks. According to the research, despite the considerable progress recently made in the field – led by the EU and NATO – at least €22 billion in efficiency gains could be achieved each year, a figure confirmed by other research bodies, such as the Bertelsmann Foundation, the McKinsey Institute and the Italian Institute of International Affairs (IAI). In fact, European countries deploy 178 different major weapon systems, compared with 30 in the US. Therefore, inefficient defence spending in previous years has dire consequences for current defence planning. New programmes launched in 2015-2020 aimed at making up for the accumulated delay following the fall of the Berlin Wall, and preparing for the wars of the future. The usual focus on internal politics limited resource allocation and slowed down such programmes. Worst still, as the European defence industry is unprepared, the Ukrainian conflict requires short-term decisions in a complex context. Raising budgets will not automatically imply a wealthy phase for all European companies: the CEOs for major European concerns admit it will take 18-36 months to respond to urgent requirements for most materials and equipment, and up to five to six years for the most complex - and/or for opening new production lines. Furthermore, European companies are struggling with the shortage of raw materials. Most titanium, aluminium and nickel for defence applications was bought from Russia. Purchasing from the US is an option, but Washington will give priority to its own industry, naturally. European companies must build up stocks, find alternative sources of supply and qualify them, which takes one or two years. In the land sector, French, German, and British figures show that deliveries of land vehicles will suffer delays, and that pricing will be reviewed and will likely increase. To sum up, a widespread opinion amongst industry sources is that the Polish $4.7 billion contract for 250 M1A2 SEP V3 Abrams (including training, maintenance, and thousands of rounds of ammunition) is the first in a series of procurement programmes that will favour US over European defence companies. European politicians – when handing over military aid to Ukraine – have recognised how low their stocks were. To sum up, raising budgets will surely have a positive impact on European armed forces which, finally, will be enabled to complete a decade-long modernisation effort. However, new programmes will tend to privilege US products, as an effect of American capability to deliver at a fast pace and at reasonable prices. Legacy Programmes, New Acquisitions The crisis in Ukraine brings Europe back to basics. So, the first sector to explore is the European MBT situation. Today, Europe operates twelve different MBTs, half of which are third-generation vehicles – the Leopard 2, Leclerc and Ariete. The rest are represented by legacy second- and first-generation Leopard 1 (12.5%), T-72 derivatives (8%), P-91 Twardy (6%), and other miscellaneous models (24%). The Leopard 2 alone accounts for 40% of the European market today, and is the only third-generation MBT currently in production in Europe. It is logical that the need to renew MBT fleets in Central and East Europe presents a great opportunity for making it a continent-wide standard but, as the Polish Abrams contract demonstrates, the American ability for timely response to urgent requirements might hamper KMW’s reach. Cheaper lighter Marco Giulio Barone is a politicalmilitary analyst based in Paris, and a regular contributor to Mönch magazines. f
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