18 · MT 3/2022 Feature vehicles delivered to Germany and the Netherlands (launch customers), 623 ordered by the UK, and 88 ordered by Lithuania, currently being delivered. With over 1,600 vehicles (in all versions) delivered in Europe (Croatia, Finland, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Sweden) and a few hundred more abroad, the Patria AMV is a true best seller, along with the company’s rejuvenated 6x6 APC, which has already received orders for 320 vehicles from Finland and Latvia. Should these three companies be able to respond to the demand, despite shortages and troubles in their supply and value chains, they are pre-positioned to take a substantial share of the AFV/IFV market. In addition to US products, the threat is here represented by fratricidal competition between them, coupled with the existence of other manufacturers that – albeit less successful in terms of contracts – have very good offerings. Take General Dynamics Europe’s Ascod-based IFVs, Iveco-Leonardo’s Freccia and MPV families of armoured vehicles, and Rheinmetall’s Lynx-31/41. The need for armoured vehicles at reasonable prices might also favour the launch of more traditional – yet affordable – designs like the PMMC G5. The main challenge for all is finding a secure niche, while avoiding the fratricide that might clear the way for US or other non-European products. The self-propelled howitzer market is driven mainly by replacement of US-built M-109Ls, which still represent 50% of the European self- propelled artillery fleet. Two European projects could potentially set a new standard: KMW-Rheinmetall’s PzH 2000 (and its AGM variant), and Nexter’s Caesar wheeled artillery system. In principle, countries opting for tracked heavy forces might select the PzH 2000, while those betting on wheeled assets might see the French artillery system as their bestof-breed. For example, the PzH 2000 has 20% of the market already, as it is in service with Germany, Italy, Greece, the Netherlands, Croatia, and Lithuania, while Caesar is used by France, Denmark, Belgium, and the Czech Republic – enjoying 10% of the market. Nevertheless, things do not play out linearly, and fragmentation operates once more against standardisation. The US is putting pressure behind the BAE Systems M-109A7 Paladin self-propelled and M-777 towed howitzers as solutions for Central and East European countries. BAE Systems also counts the Archer self-propelled howitzer in its portfolio, with Sweden the only customer so far. Once again, rivalries and competition might favour outsiders, as already happened in Finland and Estonia with Hanwha’s K9, or developing projects such as Konštrukta-Defence’s Zuzana-2, recently delivered to Ukraine and apparently performing well on the battlefield. products, such as General Dynamics’ Ascod LT-105/120 or BAE Systemss CV-90120 might show up, as well as outsiders that include FNSS’ Kaplan or Otokar’s Tulpar. Competition will be tough, as the demand for new tanks is expected to reach up to 1,500-1,800 vehicles. In the AFV/IFV subsector, the situation is much more fragmented. There are at least eleven different models in service – both wheeled and tracked – 40% of which are still represented by Soviet legacy BMPs. None of the more modern vehicles has clear dominance: the best seller – BAE System’s CV-90 family – takes barely 12% of the market. Replacing legacy models represents a huge market, estimated by Swedish and German studies at 2,200-2,600 vehicles. In addition, many nations have never entirely replaced their ageing fleets of M-113s, especially in their special variants (C2, anti-tank, close air-defence, utility), thus resulting in possible additional orders – difficult to quantify, but that may represent up to 1,000 more. Despite tough times for European companies, ‘quantitative easing’ in this segment will consolidate the market position of leading companies such as Nexter, ARTEC, and Patria. Nexter, already involved in the SCORPION programme, has a solid portfolio and the capability of meeting some of the European requirements for armoured vehicles. For instance, it is already proposing its VBCI MKII to Greece in the Hellenically customised Philoctetes version. The backbone of the Nexter portfolio is represented by the SCORPION programme, with hundreds of Griffon and Jaguar armoured vehicles already ordered by France and Belgium. ARTEC has recently won an order for 100 additional Boxers for the UK, and can rely also on its production lines in Algeria. Boxer remains the most sophisticated vehicle of its class, but also the heaviest and the most expensive. This notwithstanding, it has sold quite well in Europe, with 605 One of the seemingly infinite number of versions of Patria’s AMV XP, the most versatile and bestselling wheeled AFV in Europe. Front view of BAE Systems’ CV-9030, the bestselling tracked AFV in Europe, here in its most recent version and featuring a low IR observability camouflage. Nexter’s VBCI in its PHILOCTETES version offered to the Greek army and equipped with the CTA-40 40mm gun. f h
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