India’s security challenges are exacerbated by growing tensions with China and what appears to be the beginning of the end of a longstanding security partnership with Russia. India’s military is now faced with the challenging prospect of having to reorient its forces from their traditional defensive posture vis-à-vis Pakistan on its Western borders, towards a face-off with the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) on its Himalayan and Eastern borders. Tensions between two of the world’s most populous nations have been on the boil since the 15 June 2020, Galwan clash, which led to 20 Indian troops being killed, while China acknowledged at least four of its own troop’s dead. The Galwan clash and continued Chinese claims on Indian territory have triggered the Indian establishment into strengthening the nation’s defensive posture on its Eastern borders with troop buildups and infrastructure development in border areas. However, this has also resulted in budgetary allocations for the Indian military being further stretched and delaying much needed modernization initiatives. Frayed Partnership India’s geopolitical challenges are being further amplified due to Russia’s ill-advised decision to invade the Ukraine in 2022. India’s traditional and longstanding friendship with Russia is now under closer global scrutiny than ever before and while it has demurred from openly condemning or criticizing Russian actions, it has been involved in efforts to put an end to hostilities. The Indian military operates vast quantities of Russian (and Soviet era) equipment, which require a steady supply of spares to remain operational in the face of a growing Chinese threat. Russia yet remains a major strategic partner with deliveries of advanced S-400M SAM systems underway and having provided critical support for India’s nuclear submarine and aircraft carrier programmes. For India’s military, however, the poor performance of Russia’s military in the Ukrainian campaign is a cause for concern, as it uses much of the same equipment, without the benefit of upgrades undertaken by Russian industry. In the Balance For India’s military, the present situation can be only termed as highly undesirable. The threat from China is one that is unpredictable but only likely to increase, while Russia on whom the military depended for a constant supply of spares and defence equipment, is in a quagmire in Ukraine and is unlikely to prioritize Indian requests for spares and support. With regards to the political climate in India, at the present moment, the nation is facing a unique moment in its history with the Prime Minister Narendra Modi led Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) appearing almost invincible in the political arena, having won two successive, five-year terms to govern the nation. Many political commentators in India concur, that given a fragmented and weak political opposition, Prime Minister Modi and the BJP are likely to return to power in the next general elections to be held in 2024. The shock of the disruption in spares and support from Russia and a desire to not be beholden to arms supplies from the west, has galvanized India’s defence establishment to look inward for future defence procurement. It would also appear that the Indian establishment believes that a wider confrontation with the China over border issues, is unlikely in the short to medium-term and as a result, there is time to both modernise the Indian military and create an indigenous defence ecosystem. As a result, one can expect a continuation of the government’s call for ‘Atmanirbharta’ (Self Sufficiency) in defence manufacturing, which takes over from the earlier slogan of ‘Make in India’. The challenge here is that India’s domestic defence industry is at least a decade away from meeting the military’s needs for state-of-the-art defence equipment. Uncertain Path Indian military planners will hope that time is on their side, as they navigate the long overdue reequipment of the nation’s military. The imminent need to reequip India’s military, largely equipped with platforms first inducted in the 1980s and 1990s has been hamstrung by an unwieldy defence procurement mechanism and a risk averse bureaucracy, often delaying vital military procurements by decades. India’s noisy political arena also means that critical military procurements are often open to allegations of corruption, which either slow down a procurement programme or lead to its abandonment, altogether. India’s defence procurement processes will need to be drastically overhauled to aid in the success of India’s growing homegrown defence ecosystem. India has the luxury of a large home market, but this historically been more of a bane than a boon, with decades of Government support to state-owned enterprises stifling innovation and efficiency. India would do well to take a close look at Israel, Turkey and South Korea, which utilized license manufacturing agreements to grow their own indigenous defence industry and replicate these, rather than trying to reinvent the wheel. Atul Chandra Looking Inward Atul Chandra is multiple aerospace and defence award winning journalist based in Bengaluru, India. He reports regularly for MilTech on industry, technology, and policy issues. 44 · MT 2/2023 Observations from India
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTM5Mjg=