Hot Spots MT 2/2023 · 11 NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg with Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin. China and the (still) Pacific attitude China has been for quite a few years US’ primary concern, and this was somehow being reflected in NATO’s rhetoric. However, on 24 February things changed. After intense debates, the US’ China first option has been outclassed by Ukraine, still remaining deeply rooted in American strategic thinking. China is indeed the only geopolitical entity that could overtime outclass US planetary hegemony, Moscow’s superpower status now being limited to its nuclear dimension. In the Strategic Concept, China is mentioned for the first time, and for the first time, the global interests of a geographically limited Alliance are introduced. However, China is called a strategic competitor - certainly not as a ‘threat’ – even though the conflict might have affected the Concept’s wording. In the US Defense Strategy, China remains the primary military, economic, technological, and diplomatic competitor. In the meantime, China is glueing itself to Russia against Western hegemony. In its recent alleged peace proposal, flaunting dubious neutrality, China did not deny that Moscow’s intervention was somehow provoked by the Western actions while US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken recently warned that the partnership could turn into ‘lethal support’. In any case, China will gain more and more importance in the years to come, also to NATO. We will see whether the European states will then be called upon to help the United States in the Pacific. For now, the Atlantic Alliance is inviting its Pacific friends, such as Japan, Australia, and South Korea, to its summits. Relationships with the EU, rearmament, enlargement NATO will finally need to define its relationship with the European Union. The EU has been trying for a while to build its defence, but the war put an end to discussions on the Macronian version of the ‘strategic autonomy’, giving instead an emphasis on the concept of “complementarity” between the EU and NATO . This word, which still lacks a precise definition, is used to describe the relationship between the two in January’s Joint Declaration. Perhaps the joint project on Military Mobility, which originated under the PESCO banner and has also become of strategic importance for NATO, is what can give such idea. In general, however, the military supremacy of the NATO instrument in the European theatre remains strongly urges countries to provide as much support as possible to Ukraine: armaments, sensors, communication, intelligence, training, and logistics, which has no equivalent in the Alliance’s history. But the support is practically delivered in other formats outside NATO, such as in Ramstein’s Ukraine Defense Contact Group (which gathers some 50 countries) or other bilateral or multilateral fora. However, the Atlantic’ fingerprint’ remains. NATO’s ratio behind actions is that a Russian victory would seriously endanger the stability of the Western world. When Stoltenberg says, “If the war ends tomorrow our security environment has changed for the long term,” or that “Kremlin wants a different Europe, one where Russia controls neighbours,” he is most likely not exagerating. After all, that is what happened until 30 years ago. Moreover, what will happen in Kyiv will also impact the future of Moldova or Georgia, potential next targets of Moscow’s imperialist ambitions. It is no coincidence that Putin recently revoked a 2012 decree recognising Moldova’s sovereignty in regards to Transnistria. Nor is it a coincidence that NATO is pledging the countries’ support. And again, it is no coincidence that Biden recently went to Warsaw, Kyiv and Bucharest. Today, nobody can make reliable assumptions about the war. What is certain is that the escalation has united NATO, making the Ukrainian victory something vital to preserving the world’s democracies against Putin’s authoritarianism. Which is, more or less, what has been said by the former Russian President Medvedev about the conflict a few days ago: “Russia risks being torn apart if it stops a special military operation (SMO) before victory is achieved.” NATO British multinational Group training in Estonia. Based in Brussels, Caterina Tani is MilTech’s NATO and EU Affairs Correspondent. Meeting of Ukraine defence Contact Group in Brussels. (All Photos are courtesy of NATO) f
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTM5Mjg=