42 · MT 2/2022 Looking East Gabriel Dominguez A ‘New Era’ – the Burgeoning Sino-Russian Bloc Among the flurry of headlines about the Ukraine crisis and the Winter Olympics, one important development seems to have garnered little internatio- nal attention. On 4 February, the same day the Winter Olympics began in Beijing, Russia and China issued a joint declaration ‘on a new era,’ that is bound to affect the geopolitical balance of power for years to come. While the two countries have been developing a closer partnership over the past three decades, this has mostly been evident in recent years, as they have found themselves increasingly aligned on foreign policy and security concerns, often as a result of US-led pressure. The most recent indication of this was their recent, 5,364 word-long declaration detailing their shared positions on a range of global issues, including China’s support for Moscow’s demand to create “long-term legally binding security guarantees in Europe,” as well as for its opposition to further NATO expansion. Just how China will affect future events in Ukraine, if at all, is currently unclear. Notably, Beijing and Moscow do not have any obligation to come to each other’s aid if one of them is attacked, as they have no formal military alliance and are unlikely to forge one in the foreseeable future. Nonetheless, the joint statement heralds a new phase in bilateral ties, with the two countries saying their friendship has “no limits” and that there are “no forbidden areas of cooperation”: an indication that military support is not off the table, particularly as Russian and Chinese forces intensify joint military and anti-terrorism exercises and the two countries boost military-technological co-operation. Washington has already sounded the alarm, with Pentagon Spokesperson John F Kirby saying that the statement has “certainly provided further evidence that China has decided that they’re going to stand alongside Russia with respect to what’s going on in Europe. And we would say that their tacit support, if you will, for Russia is deeply alarming. And frankly, even more destabilising to the security situation in Europe”. The Sino-Russian declaration, however, is not limited to developments in Europe, as Moscow openly expressed support for the ‘One China Principle’ while opposing any form of independence for Taiwan, claiming that it is an “inalienable part of China”. The two countries also criticised the AUKUS security pact, US consideration for deploying intermediate- range and shorter-range ground-based missiles in Asia-Pacific and Europe, and Washington’s plans to further expand missile defence to various regions of the world. The statement is not just a list of demands on the West: it is also a declaration of principles for a non-US-led world order, in which they see themselves as playing a key role: “A trend has emerged towards redistribution of power in the world and the international community is showing a growing demand for the leadership aiming at peaceful and gradual development”. In an apparent reaction to US criticism of their respective government systems, Russia and China, describing their ties as “superior to political and military alliances of the Cold War era,” also sketched out their views on democracy, saying that it is “only up to the people of the country to decide whether their state is a democratic one”. The two sides went even further. “Certain states’ attempts to impose their own ‘democratic standards’ on other countries, to monopolise the right to assess the level of compliance with democratic criteria, to draw dividing lines based on the grounds of ideology, including by establishing exclusive blocs and alliances of convenience, prove to be nothing but flouting of democracy and go against the spirit and true values of democracy”. Although criticism of Western democracies and their policies is not a new phenomenon, its inclusion in the joint declaration signals that Moscow and Beijing are also finding ideological common ground to underscore their ‘comprehensive partnership’. While the growing Sino-Russian bond is not free of challenges, including who will be the junior partner in the relationship, it seems the two sides have found enough areas of mutual interest to work together, and to try to undermine the US-led world order by presenting two fronts. This strategic rapprochement is being driven by rapidly worsening relations with the West, the growing Sino-US competition, and Washington’s approach to forge ever-closer defence alliances and partnerships with countries in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. In their statement, Moscow and Beijing called on NATO to “abandon its ideologised Cold War approaches”. However, the truth is that the resurrection of a strong Sino-Russian partnership, alongside Western- led attempts to build similar global coalitions to counter it, are very reminiscent of Cold War-era politics. But times have changed. Unlike during the Mao Zedong era, Beijing now fields an increasingly advanced military – considered a near-peer competitor by Washington – and is generating the means to further modernise it, as China is widely expected to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy in the near future. Moreover, many countries with close ties to both Washington and Beijing are taking a pragmatic approach to the growing rivalry, as they do not want to be forced into choosing sides. One key reason for this is that – just as during the Cold War – a direct conflict between these nuclear-armed countries would have unforeseen consequences. Gabriel Dominguez has extensive experience and knowledge of the Asia-Pacific geopolitical arena.
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTM5Mjg=