38 · MT 2/2022 Nations in Focus including “major” air and naval power, as well as air defence, Stoltenberg said. In particular, the US is deploying Patriot batteries to Poland, while Germany and the Netherlands are doing the same in Slovakia. All these moves are part of NATO’s steps towards a “reset” of its military posture and a substantial return to a Cold War, vis-à-vis a new security reality due to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and its military integration with Belarus. NATO’s military posture will likely be further increased – and extended in terms of time – in the immediate future. Indeed, measures to reinforce security in all domains “for the longer term” will be discussed by defence ministers and leaders, respectively, on 16 and 24 March. In the meantime, NATO has launched its ‘Cold Response’ winter exercise – the largest of its kind since the Cold War – with 30,000 troops from around 30 countries, including Sweden and Finland. Amid a worrying situation in Ukraine, Stoltenberg warned against the risk of a possible Russian ‘false flag’ operation with chemical weapons. Russia, he explained, has been lying on many issues for months, and sees false flag operations as providing excuses for the use of force. As Moscow is currently making “absurd claims about biological labs and chemical weapons in Ukraine [it might stage] a false flag operation, possibly including chemical weapons”. Asked if chemical weapons could be a “red line” for potential NATO intervention, the Sec-Gen replied that such a move would imply a “high price” for Moscow, refusing, however, to speculate about any Alliance military response. Ukrainians have repeatedly urged NATO to intervene, but the Alliance has so far refused to become directly involved in the conflict. However, according to Stoltenberg, it will continue to support Ukraine, including supplying equipment such as air defence systems and, possibly, fighter jets. No details were given, to maintain operational security. On the other hand, the Alliance is also determined to avoid any dangerous situations spiralling out of control following potential accidents, and has therefore stepped up its airspace monitoring and maintaining open communications with Russian commanders, Stoltenberg said. This is a particularly hot topic, given recent Russian military activity close to the Polish border, and the drones that reportedly entered Romanian and Croatian airspace. In the meantime, diplomatic talks continue. On 15 March, EU leaders from Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia went to Kyiv to show their support to Ukraine. On the same day, Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that Kyiv might decide to give up its potential NATO membership – a declaration that might open up unexpected scenarios. That may be an unworthy analysis. But there is scant evidence available that counters such a conclusion. Bright spots in the firmament of indecision, however, include German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s politically brave decision to suspend approval of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which should send Putin a strong signal that a powerful nation, on whose distaste for direct action on the international stage he thought he could depend, is actually ethically, morally and physically opposed to his actions. Yet Putin obviously believes the odds are on his side. And his fellow players, on the other side of the table, need to play much more subtle hands. At the moment, Putin thinks he can spot the ‘tell’ that each of his poker opponents has, and ‘knows’ he has a better hand. Washington, Brussels, Berlin, London, Paris, Warsaw, Tbilisi, Abu Dhabi, Brasilia, Ottawa, Pretoria, Singapore – every national government that places value on the international rule of law – all need to convince him he is wrong. That will take more than sanctions – it will take some form of immediate, incontrovertibly inimical action that threatens something Putin holds dear: his armed forces, his energy resource supposed dominance, his global status, his personal wealth – the list is as endless as his appetites. But action is now required to back up the words and rob Putin of what he needs most. Time. Putin thinks he is holding aces and eights. He may be right. But they don’t always win. The combination has been known as the ‘Dead Man’s Hand’ since the death of one William Hickock in August 1876 when holding just these cards. Wild Vlad Putin, anyone? Ukraine’s Continuing Challenges (Tim Mahon, 10 March) Resolutely (and defiantly), our friends and colleagues at Defence Express in Kyiv continue to provide detailed information and analysis from official Ukrainian sources as the beleaguered nation continues to struggle against Putin’s increasingly barbaric invasion. Their latest bulletin reveals a number of issues of concern, not the least of which is the challenge of dealing with unexploded ordnance that have been apparently deliberately targeted on non-military objectives. In one instance in the city of Mykolayiv, 14 separate unexploded devices were removed yesterday from a single residential area – including 3 FAB-250 bombs, various cluster bomb submunitions, artillery shells and mortar bombs. The fact that so many projectiles – from multiple sources – failed to explode may be a testament to poor manufacture, storage and deployment – or may be just normal statistical error – in which case the volume of fire directed at a residential area must have been phenomenal! That Putin cannot win must now be obvious to all – except, apparently, to him. Tactical victories (of which there have been precious few to date) will not make up for the effects of Ukrainian resistance – or the fact that such resistance exhibits a ‘half life’ that easily surpasses that of plutonium. NATO: US Back in Europe (Caterina Tani, 16 March) “Hundreds of thousands of troops,” including 100,000 from the US and 40,000 “under direct NATO command” are deployed in Europe to strengthen the Alliance, as Russia’s invasion continues, potentially for the long term. So said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on 15 March, ahead of the umpteenth extraordinary NATO’s ministerial meeting since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis. US troops in Europe, which in January were around 80,000, are now at their highest peak for nearly two decades. In the meantime, the 40,000 under NATO command, mostly on the Eastern flank, are part of the Alliance’s Response Force, activated for the first time in history. The massive deployment is also supported by an appropriate number of assets, Jens Stoltenberg raised the spectre of the potential use of chemical weapons by Russia in his statement on 15 March. (Photo: NATO)
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