(SLOC) must be secure and not impacted by regional crises. Conversely, the exploitation and export of gas resources in Eastern Mediterranean might be limited by numerous security issues linked to unstable political relations amongst the countries in the region and the risks of terrorist actions. In effect, the location of certain fields is rekindling pre-existing disputes over the delimitation of maritime borders and exclusive economic zones (EEZs), especially concerning the maritime border between Lebanon and Israel. In this case, in October 2022 and after intense negotiations (facilitated by the US), Israel and Lebanon announced that they had reached an “historic” agreement to determine their maritime border and remove key obstacles to the exploitation of gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean. Under the accord, the Karish offshore field would be under Israeli control and the Qana reserves, located north-east, under Lebanese control. But as part of the Karish field crosses the future demarcation line, Israel would receive a share of future revenues from the Qana field. As the European Union is seeking to diversify its gas supplies due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Israel wants to boost its deliveries to the Old Continent. The proliferation of research activities, extraction platforms, pipelines, ships and even LNG terminals implies a multiplication of sensitive targets and growing surveillance needs. The risks of sabotage and military or terrorist strikes thus present new challenges for the security apparatus of the various countries, especially naval forces. The Russian posture in the Mediterranean is weaker than in the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea, with fewer combat units and ships of lesser military value. Interactions with NATO forces are limited but a tension peak can occur at any moment. In fact, Russian forces are never far away. NATO vessels are frequently shadowed by Russian corvettes, often navigating next to the Egyptian coast, while some frigates and at least one Kilo-class submarine are permanently deployed in Tartus. Egypt Egypt benefitted of its energy independence until the end of the first decade of the 21st century and was even able to export gas thanks to two liquefaction plants - located in Idku and Damietta - and the gas pipelines to Israel (East Mediterranean Gas Pipeline - EMG) and Jordan (Arab Gas Instability in North Africa and the Middle East, the discovery of huge gas reserves, and Turkish ambitions are heating up Mediterranean waters. Geopolitics heating up The East Mediterranean region has been heating up since 2011, when the Syrian turmoil erupted and the game of influence amongst regional and global powers began. Russian intervention was the most disrupting element at military level, as the A2/AD bubble built around the Tartus naval base forced all stakeholders to deal with constant military presence - and Russian radar and electronic surveillance networks - in East Mediterranean. In addition, between 2009 and 2011, first significant successes in offshore hydrocarbon exploration led to the discovery of the Tamar and Leviathan fields, off the coast of Israel, and Aphrodite, off the southern coast of Cyprus. Further discoveries in the East Mediterranean region have followed. In 2015, the largest ever gas field in the Mediterranean Sea has been discovered off the Egyptian coast and christened Zohr as well as other fields known as West Nile Delta and Greater Nooros. It is interesting to note that the Zohr field falls in the Egyptian EEZ, only a few miles from the Cyprus EEZ, and that Aphrodite is in the Cyprus EEZ and extends slightly into Israeli waters. Usually, in case of fields straddling different EEZs, joint exploitation is considered, but tensions amongst concerned countries are also to be expected. In 2018, new explorations were successfully completed off the southern coast of Cyprus in Block 6 (Calypso-1) and Block 10 (Glaucus-1). In the same year, Lebanon became part of the game, with the signature of two exploration and production agreements between Beirut and an international consortium resulting into offshore hydrocarbon exploration and production licences in 2019. The value of discoveries for East Mediterranean countries depends on their capability of exploiting hydrocarbon fields. Such capability is deeply influenced by the gas price, the availability of export options, and means of transport, as well as by the stability of the regulatory, fiscal, and political environment in the area. Lastly, Sea Lines of Communication Marco Giulio Barone Geopolitics in East Mediterranean Shaping military agendas 32 · MT 2/2023 Nations in Focus: Greece
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