Air Force lost tens of their Bayraktar TB2 armed drones (15 of which is documented) while Russian Forces lost at-least two Orions, one Korsar, one Forpost-RU, one Mohajer-6 and two weaponized Orlan-10s as well as over 150 surveillance drones such as Forpost Orlan-10/20/30s, Granat-3/4s etc. In case of light and simple surveillance drones, including weaponized examples, it has been easy for both Ukrainians and Russians to compensate for their losses as these drones have a relatively high production rate. In case of armed tactical drones such as Turkish Bayraktar TB2 and Iranian Mohajer-6, it has always taken several months for Baykar Defence in Turkey and Qods Aviation Industry Company in Iran to manufacture replacements for the lost drones to be used by Ukrainian and Russian Armed Forces respectively. As a result of heavy losses of Bayraktar TB2s, Su-25 ground-attack aircraft of 299th Tactical Aviation Brigade of Ukrainian Air Force as well as attack helicopters of the Ukrainian Army Aviation such as Mi-24Vs engaged in air-interdiction sorties again and subsequently faced heavy losses. The same happened to the Russian Su-25SMs aircraft and Ka-52s attack helicopters. The existence of stealth UCAVs in their inventories would have changed this thanks to their low observability features (low radar cross section and IR signature) as well as advanced self-protection systems that make them less vulnerable to surface-to-air and air-to-air missiles. Losses would have been significantly lower allowing both air powers to avoid engaging their manned fighter aircraft and attack helicopters in direct combat. Expensive and Complex Loyal Wingman UCAVs The history of current stealth UCAV programs dates back to the early 2000s, when several aircraft manufacturers such as Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Dassault, and Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG were awarded contracts to develop stealth UCAVs. As a result of that, stealth experimental and demonstration UCAVs such as Boeing X-45, Northrop Grumman X-47, Dassault nEUROn and Mikoyan Skat concepts were developed and some of them such as X-45, X-47 and nEUROn had their flying prototypes extensively tested by DARPA, US Navy and French Navy respectively. X-45C and its rival X-47B were successfully tested under the Joint Unmanned Combat Air Systems (J-UCAS) program of Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the US Air Force, and the US Navy. Later it was determined that these drones were expensive to participate to competitions for design and development of low-cost Loyal Wingman UCAVs, and this led to the termination of their development. Unlike the US, in China and Russia the development of expensive UCAVs continued with the creation and birth of the Sukhoi S-70 Okhotnik-B in Russia and the Hungdu GJ-11 Sharp Sword in China. The Ukrainian War proved that current Russian, Iranian and Turkish Tactical and MALE (Medium-Altitude Long-Endurance) Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAV) such as Orion, Mohajer-6 and Bayraktar TB2 are vulnerable to modern short and medium range air-defence systems as well as to air-to-air missiles. This again indicated the importance of manned combat aircraft in air- interdiction, close-air-support, combat air patrol and deep strike missions which certainly comes at the cost of loss of many combat aircraft and death of their aircrews. For decades, many countries, particularly the United States, China and Russia, have worked on programs for developing stealth UCAVs capable of complementing missions of fifth or sixth generation fighter jets in combat or independently carrying out combat missions during future wars (acting as a loyal wingman). Some of the best examples of these drones which will be mass produced in the near future are Boeing MQ-28 Ghost Bat for the Royal Australian Air Force, U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory’s Kratos XQ-58 Valkyrie, People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s Hongdu GJ-11, and Russian Air and Space Force’s Sukhoi S-70 Okhotnik-B. These stealth, highly manoeuvrable and fast multipurpose UCAVs will be able to perform combat missions of current fourth and fifth generation fighter jets without losing precious pilots. Their tasks will range from performing destruction and suppression of enemy air defence (DEAD/SEAD) to deep strike missions. In perspective, UCAVs will dominate the skies in any major battle front in the world during the 2050’s. MilTech offers an overview on the importance of UCAVs and the unlikelihood of a complete replacement of manned combat aircraft in future. Lessons learned from the Ukraine War The Second Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh War occurred between 27 September and 10 November 2020, gave a false impression to many of the world‘s military commanders that the era of operating manned combat aircraft in classic wars was over. It was later proved that the key reason of successful drone operations of Azerbaijani Forces against their Armenian counterparts was due to the inability of the Armenian Air Force to establishing air superiority despite its newly delivered Su-30SM multirole fighter jets and the inability of ageing Osa-AKM SAM batteries of the Armenian Forces of shooting down loitering drones as well as attack drones such as Bayraktar TB2s. Ukrainians with their MiG-29 and Su-27 fighter jets along with their Tor-M and Buk-M air-defence systems and Russian Forces with their Su-30SM and Su-35S multirole fighter jets along with their air-defence systems such as Pantsir S1/2s, Tor-M2s and Buk-M2s scored many kills against each other’s surveillance and armed drones. Ukrainian Navy and Babak Taghvaee UCAVs and adjuncts/remote carriers: the light fighters of the future? 28 · MT 2/2023 Theme: Light Fighters
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