Ukraine resists, Russia does not withdraw. This is becoming a new normal as are editorials dedicated to the war at the gates of Europe. In January, the US approved a new $2.5 billion package of military aids to Ukraine, trying to meet the demand of the Ukrainian military for ammunitions, long-range weapons (artillery, missiles), night vision goggles, sights and optics, laser rangefinders, and much more. The following month, a further $500 million package was approved. According to the Kiel Institute’s figures, since January 2022, the US has pledged some €73 billion to Ukraine, of which €44,34 billion in military aid. In February, Ukrainian President Zelensky spoke to the European Parliament and to the European Council. He also had talks with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in a separate meeting. EU countries pledged €55 billion to Ukraine, of which €10 billion in military aid. To the US and to European countries, president Zelensky asks more weapons and equipment, training, and financial aid. He multiplies calls to deliver promised resources quickly. To give an idea of the orders of magnitude, Ukrainian Chief-of-Staff, Lt. General Serhiy Shaptala, stated that to reverse the situation on the ground and switch from a defensive to an offensive posture – thus giving Ukraine a chance to pursue complete victory – he would need 300 tanks, 6-700 armoured vehicles, and 500 artillery pieces. Naturally, the wishlist is provisional and not exhaustive. War does not wait for western beloved bureaucracy or, in the case of the EU, for its “normative power”. War takes lives daily, disrupts supply chains, destroys infrastructure and houses, and consumes weapons and equipment at fast pace. According to Norwegian army’s esteems, Russia would have lost more than 180,000 soldiers (killed and wounded) while Ukraine 100,000. Ukrainian forces are engaged in a race against time to get timely supplies, and deal with daily shortages of food, water, gears, and ammunitions. Yet, they make every metre of Ukrainian territory taken by Russians cost them the highest possible price. It is a nation- wide effort that goes beyond the crude performance of its armed forces. It includes large private initiatives such as Ukrainian TV presenter Serhiy Prytula’s crowdfundings as well as individual initiatives by private citizens that voluntarily reach out to the front bringing small quantities of food and warm clothes to support their soldiers. Russian forces resist, too, and they pursue their campaign. After the September 2022 mobilization, Russia can count on 300,000 more troops, and Ukraine is afraid that Russia Will is as important as technology edge Editorial anticipated that other big companies will be called to contribute to the war efforts in 2023. The flow of money allowed Putin to raise pensions and minimum salaries by 10% and to guarantee subsides to the most impacted economic sectors. Sanctions tend to act in the long run, and the Russian ailing economy cannot hold forever. But Moscow does have margins to manoeuvring, still. Worse still, blowbacks of a sudden collapse would be a disaster for the global economy. The take home message is that the technology edge guaranteed by US and European weapons is fundamental to give hope to Ukraine and to make Kyiv’s victory possible. But money and technology are not enough. Battles and wars are won only through strong will. The real challenge is defeating the Russian will to fight rather than his ability to fight. On paper, European forces would be more advanced and better trained than Russia’s, but should a war occur, what would make the difference would be popular support for the government and the army. So, in the democratic world, the battle for hearts and minds must be won domestically as a precondition to provide Ukraine and the other allies with a more solid, credible support that goes beyond showing the flag. Marco Giulio Barone Editor-in-Chief MT 2/2023 · 1 might organise a large offensive employing half a million soldiers at once. Sometimes, Russia organizes massive missile raids through Kh-101/555 subsonic cruise missiles launched by Tu-95 strategic bombers, Kh-22 supersonic cruise missiles launched from Tu-22 bombers, Kh-59 stand-off missiles launched by Su-24 bomber fighters, Iskander short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) launched from land batteries in the Kursk Oblast, and Kalibr subsonic cruise missiles launched from naval vessels in the Black Sea. In March, raids also included six Kinzhal hypersonic missiles launched by Mig-31K fighter bombers, the largest attack with this kind of weapons so far. In addition, a few dozen S-300s have been used in surface-to-surface mode. Meanwhile, the bitter surprise for western countries is that Russian GDP has shrunk by 2.2% only in 2022. One year ago, western analysts had esteemed that the combined consequences of war and western sanctions would have reduced Russian GDP by 8%. IMF eventually expects a slight 0.3% growth in 2023. This is in partly due to the raise in the price of oil, gas, and raw materials as well as to the expansion of Russian trade with China, India, and Turkey to compensate for lowering sales to Europe. With Ukrainian production of cereals going down, Russian sales flourished, helped – once again – by global shortage and raising prices. In the financial sector, Russian central bank raised interest rates while imposing to importers of raw materials to pay their bill in roubles, thus containing the inflation spiral. Lastly, Russian National Wealth Fund contributed to cover for the state deficit – and it could do so for three more years at least, according to esteems. Moscow also seized part of the benefits of Gazprom and
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