Pyongyang may ultimately intend the weapon to serve as a “dual-capable system,” a reference to its nuclear or conventional warhead capability. On 25 January, a “long-range cruise missile,” was tested, flying for approx. 152 minutes and hitting a “target island 1,800 km away,” according to media reports. When last tested, in September, reports indicated a 126 minute flight duration and a range of 1,500km – the latest test could have been intended to demonstrate a newly-extended range capability. Only two days later, Pyongyang tested the KN-23-series SRBM from a wheeled TEL, then closed the month with the launch of a Hwasong-12 IRBM – the first launch of this nuclear-capable type since 2017 raising concerns that Pyongyang might suspend a self-imposed moratorium on long-range and nuclear tests. Despite UN-imposed sanctions, North Korea has been developing its latest weapon systems under a five-year military modernisation plan unveiled by Kim Jong-un in early 2021 in a bid to modernise the Korean People’s Army, bolster its deterrence capabilities, and enable it to “fight a war at the highest level”. Japan and South Korea see these developments as “provocations” and “security threats,” and both are investing in enhancing air defences and developing other countermeasures. Seoul is to start re-organising and re-equipping its Air Defense Missile Command in April and will rename Army Missile Command as Missile Strategic Command, focused on “strategic and operational target strike missions”. Tensions remain high on the Korean Peninsula, as Pyongyang increases the rate of missile testing. The unprecedented scale of launches is designed to showcase North Korea’s latest military capabilities, and to bolster its strategic deterrence posture. Pyongyang’s neighbours are taking note, and enhancing their own missile capabilities. Between 5 and 31 January, the North Korean military conducted a total of seven missile tests – the most launched in a single month since Kim Jong-un came to power in April 2012 – further raising concerns about a Northeast Asian arms race and the risk of miscalculation. The test series began on 5 and 11 January, with the launches of what state-owned media described as a new type of “hypersonic missile,” featuring what appeared to be a manoeuvrable re-entry vehicle (MaRV). During its second test, on 11 February, the weapon flew 700km at a top speed of Mach 10, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, which stated the test marked an improvement compared to the 5 January launch, which achieved a top speed of Mach 6 over its 500km course. Hypersonic weapons operate at speeds of at least Mach 5, and boostglide vehicles typically even faster. However, the MoDs in both Seoul and Tokyo have avoided calling the weapon ‘hypersonic,’ with Seoul also claiming it could intercept it. First shown last October in Pyongyang, the new missile was launched on both occasions from what seemed to be a six-axle transporter-erectorlauncher (TEL). It appears to feature a modified, single-stage, liquid propellant-based booster, and a 5m conical MaRV payload. Markus Schiller, an aerospace engineer at Munich-based ST Analytics, the booster rocket appears to be the same as that on the Hwasong-8, also described as a hypersonic missile. He told MilTech the booster is capable of carrying a payload of over 1t to a range of 2,000km, or more. “This is comparable to the performance of the Chinese DF-21D missile: a two-stage solid-propellant missile that carries a MaRV that looks quite similar to the North Korean one in terms shape and size and is estimated to weigh just over 1 tonne”. The DF-21D is often referred to by Chinese media as a ‘carrier killer’, intended to deter US carriers in an anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) role. Schiller noted the similarities could also indicate a similar role for the North Korean weapon. On 14 January two KN-23-series SRBMs were launched from a railway-based system unveiled last September – the fourth known platform used for the missiles, which have also been seen on wheeled and tracked TELs. A KN-23-based submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) was tested last October. The KN-23 has been described by the US Congressional Research Service as exemplifying “the most notable advance to the North Korean inventory in the smaller category of weapons”. These tests were followed by the launch of two KN-24 SRBMs, which flew some 380km before falling into the East Sea. The JCS in Seoul noted that North Korea has managed to further shorten the intervals between missile firings for the system. First tested in August 2019, the tracked KN-24 system carries two missiles that are similar in appearance to some of those used by the US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). Pyongyang has tested them to a maximum range of 410 kilometres. The KN-24 is “a tactical system with a mobile launcher, solid propellant, and a relatively large payload,” according to the CRS, which suggests that Analysis MT 2/2022 · 55 Gabriel Dominguez has extensive experience and knowledge of the Asia-Pacific geopolitical arena. Gabriel Dominguez Enhanced Deterrence North Korea Ramps Up Pace of Missile Testing Pyongyang has engaged in an unprecedented flurry of test launches, including the pictured test of a so-called hypersonic missile on 11 January. (Korea Central News Agency)
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