36 · MT 2/2022 Nations in Focus The announcement came after an extraordinary meeting of the Russian Security Council (unusually web-streamed) to discuss eventual recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk, after the two regions’ leader called on Russia for it, in order “to prevent civilian casualties” – recognition strongly supported by the senior officials present at the Council. Recognition of Donetsk and Lugansk will mean the end of Minsk Agreement, the peace talks brokered by France and Germany, which envisaged the two regions (termed “temporarily occupied territories”) would eventually be returned to Kyiv. In addition, the agreements would offer Moscow the justification to send forces to the territories, an opportunity that Putin is looking forward to taking, as media reports that the Russian president has decided to send in ‘peacekeeping’ troops. The Price of Ineptitude (Tim Mahon, 22 February) Watching Questions on Ukraine in the House of Commons this afternoon, it is amazing to see partisan rivalry recede and common purpose between opposing political ideologies rear its welcome head. Crossparty support for what Prime Minister Boris Johnson called “draconian sanctions” is too mild a description of the mood of the House: there is a unity of purpose to ensure that Putin’s ill-advised, impetuous and imperious gamble fails – and does so quickly, comprehensively and with drastic consequences for his autocratic, corrupt and mendacious regime. But will that happen? In a recent editorial comment, we suggested that the Western powers – in concert or unilaterally – will say much but do very little. Rather than adhering to Theodore Roosevelt’s advice, to “speak softly but carry a big stick,” leaders have appeared of late to be more in favour of a “shout loudly but brandish a limp stick of celery” approach. And the net result has been recognition of the so-called ‘independent’ region of Donetsk and Lugansk, as Ukraine faces cannibalisation, and the illegal entry of Russian troops into a sovereign, independent nation. The fact that Russia contends that Ukraine has no right to sovereignty notwithstanding, Putin’s actions are illegal, shockingly dangerous and with potentially catastrophic results. The West will react – as will other nations around the world. But that reaction will take time: time that politicians have wasted in arguing, vacillating and, frankly, doing almost anything rather than make EU To (Re)agree Sanctions as Putin Ups the Ante (Caterina Tani, 22 February) EU leaders condemned in “the strongest possible terms” the decision by Russian President Putin to recognize the Ukrainian breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent entities, and to sign treaties of mutual assistance with them. On 21 February, EU Commission and Council Presidents Ursula Von Der Leyen and Charles Michel called the move “a blatant violation of international law as well as the Minsk agreement,” adding that Brussels “will react with sanctions aainst those involved in this illegal act”. High Representative Josep Borrell speaking with journalists after the EU FA Council. (Photo: EU) It is unclear what kind of measures the EU will apply. The bloc has recently agreed on a package of “massive sanctions” to be triggered in the event of a Russian invasion. Sanctions that, however, could “also be a cost” for Europe - which is still highly dependent on Russian gas - as also recognized by Michel at the Munich Security Conference. According to the EUHigh Representative Joseph Borrell, who delivered his post-Foreign Affairs Council press conference an hour before Putin’s announcement, it will be up to foreign ministers to decide what kind of sanctions to apply in case of a recognition. “Certain components [of the sanctions] can be implemented […] in certain degrees, depending on the level of the aggression”. For now, EU Ministers confirmed the package of €1.2 billion in financial assistance to Kyiv, and decided to support the Ukrainian army via a professional military education programme linked to the European Peace Facility. In addition, they agreed to send a mission of experts in cybersecurity to Ukraine, and sanctioned five members of the Russian Duma. In the meantime, in a very dangerous move, Putin recognised the Republic of Donetsk and Lugansk and signed ‘Friendship and Mutual Assistance’ treaties with both regions. He did it at the end of a one hour speech, during which where he traced Russia and Ukraine history over the last hundred years, emphasising the ethnic and linguistic homogeneity and “historical brotherhood” of the two countries. In his long monologue, the former KGB agent blamed Lenin for having invented Ukraine, NATO for its post-fall-of-USSR behaviour, and insulted Ukraine, calling it a “puppet” regime “forcefully assimilating Russian speakers”. A speech, very much inspired by the article he published last July, focused on the importance of ties between Moscow and Kyiv, just a few months after the deployment of troops at the border with Ukraine.
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