Green light for Sweden’s NATO accession in Vilnius and “yellow” for Ukraine

Not even 24 hours later than Turkey has finally given the green light for Swedish accession to NATO, the Alliance agreed on 11 July on a set of measures to bring Ukraine “closer to the Alliance” without however mentioning any timelines for its invitation of accession, amid intense disappointments of Ukrainians, who fear that accession might become a currency of exchange in negotiations with Russia.

Today’s approved measures for Ukraine are “a clear path towards its membership in NATO. [However] the most urgent task now is to ensure that Ukraine prevails because unless Ukraine prevails, there’s no membership issue to be discussed at all,” said Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the press conference following the first day of the NATO summit in Vilnius.

Beyond words, most NATO members are currently not keen to decide a more precise timeframe. Besides those from the Northeast and some from the East flank, most members think it is too soon to discuss Article 5 issues, as Ukraine is still involved in a full-fledged war with Russia.

But Ukrainians look for more concrete pledges and future perspectives, also for ‘motivational reasons’. On 11 July, Zelenksy harshly defined the lack of timeframe for Ukrainian invitation and membership as “unprecedented and absurd”. He also criticised the “vague” wording about conditions to invite Ukraine, claiming that perhaps “there is no readiness neither to invite Ukraine to NATO nor to make it a member of the Alliance.” This, he added, could be linked to the need to keep a window of opportunity is being left to bargain Ukraine’s membership in NATO in negotiations with Russia.

With their new measures, leaders took some critical steps. They agreed on a new multi-year assistance programme for Ukraine to help the transition from the Soviet era and help rebuild the country from a civil and military point of view and established a new NATO-Ukraine Council – whose first meeting will be on the second day of the ministerial. Also, they reaffirmed that Kyiv would become a member of NATO and removed the Membership Action Plan as a requirement to join the Alliance, making the overall process smoother.

in the meantime, after months of excruciating negotiations, Turkey gave on the evening of 10 July an official green light for Sweden’s accession to NATO. The result was announced and received with relief after Erdogan caused significant headaches as he said to be willing to link Stockholm’s access to future Turkish EU membership.

Indeed, the conditions required by Turkey in Madrid last year did not mention the EU at all but focused on Swedish (and Finnish) protection of PKK militants. The country has since then amended its constitution and agreed to collaborate with Turkey on fighting terrorism. But perhaps the less highlighted reason that convinced Turkish recently reelected President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was the US decision to remove restrictions on arms exports to Ankara. So far, the import of US F-16 technology, crucial for the Turkish aviation industry (one of the most critical licensed producers and exporters of the fighter worldwide), has been blocked by a US Congress resolution.

In the meantime, NATO confirmed its approval for the new defence plans, entailing deploying 300.000 troops at high readiness, including substantial air and naval power, endorsed a new Defence Production Action Plan for joint procurement and agreed to make the 2% in defence spending a “floor” and not a ceiling.

Caterina Tani reporting from Brussels