Insights from NATO’s First Space Symposium

The need of key technical advances to tackle new forms of warfare have prompted NATO to revisit and accelerate collaboration between the Alliance and the space industry, namely through NATO’s first space symposium on the 29th and 30th of April 2024.

With its impact on communications, navigation and intelligence, space is indeed key for NATO’s security. In December 2019, NATO Heads of State and Government declared space as the Alliance’s ‘fifth domain’ of operations, alongside land, maritime, air and cyberspace. Subsequently, a Space Policy has been adopted.

As Mircea Geona, NATO Deputy Secretary General, recalled during this inaugural Space Symposium hosted by NATO and NATO Allied Command Transformation (ACT) to highlight the growing importance of space for modern military operations, but also for the resilience of our connected societies: “We need to grasp the opportunities of technological changes at an incredible pace to meet the challenges of the Alliance and maintain a growing prosperity of our nations.” America’s alliance system in Europe – unlike the Soviet bloc in 1989 – rests on consent and sharing of information. It is an “empire by invitation”, using the term quoted by political scientist Geir Lundestad.

Integrating space capabilities into its doctrine, planning, command and control, and operations is a top priority for the Alliance, together with exploring how to leverage the rapidly evolving space sector for the benefit of collective defence. Space is a domain, argues Angus Lapsley, Assistant Secretary General for Defense Policy and Planning, where “we are going to be tested earliest, and possibly quite dramatically as countries will take pain in space where they will not take on the ground.” Such attacks could lead to the invocation of Article 5. Even if space is where the West has a slight advantage, “we will be pushed in quite far”, and the need for deterrence and resilience in and through the space domain on both military and civilian operations (GPS, data) will “cost a lot of money.”

Space is a fast-paced sector (forecast of the worldwide launch rate for defence and dual-use satellites will jump by 160% over the coming decade) with critical implications for modern warfare, and the global cyber warfare market, e.g. is expected to grow more than 250%.

Global military expenditures hit a record $2.2tn in 2022. Global government expenditures for space defence and security capabilities have totaled $58.4bn, a historic high with $40.2bn contracted to industry. The manufacturing and launch of government satellites, the provision of user terminals, commercial operation for government systems delivery of commercial space and security products, products, data and services to defence organizations has set the scene for these two full days of lively cross-sector discussions on how NATO can further promote integration in the space domain. More than 100 defence satellites were launched in 2023.

The sales pitch from the industry is clear: commercial technology develops at high speed amid the competition of the free market – defence doesn’t. There is better AI in a Tesla than in US military vehicles, and far greater computing power in an iPhone than the systems regularly used by the Department of Defense. Until 2019, America’s nuclear arsenal still operated off floppy disks. NASA relies on SpaceX to carry payloads weighing 150t into orbit and is also relying on Starship to land human on the Moon as part of the US space agency’s Artemis program.

A collaboration between ClearSpace and the UK Space Agency aims to explore the feasibility of an innovative in-orbit satellite refuelling mission, marking a significant step forward in a new market segment for in-orbit services. (Image: ClearSpace)

The Symposium brought together decision-makers, space experts, and industry leaders from satellite manufacturers and satellite companies to space robotics companies with 44 attending and 21 exhibiting, from primes (Airbus Defence and Space, Leonardo, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman) to launchers (OHB, SES Space and Defense), Thales Alenia Space and Viasat) to “new space” pioneers (Isar, Look up Space, Preligens ClearSpace or Astroscale).

General Philippe Lavigne, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, took this opportunity to call for collective strength, interoperability, and raising ‘Space IQ’ [the ability to navigate the complex legal and strategic landscape of space] across the Alliance during the ‘significant milestone’ in NATO’s space strategy.

He acknowledges the private sector’s growing prominence and called for advanced procurement integration process such as the ‘dynamic tender’ integration experience held by NCIA as a decisive tool such as B.O.T. in PPP. An increasingly fragmented global geopolitical context is a major driver of space defence and security expenditures said Simon Seminari, Editor of the 1st edition of the Space and Security report.

On July 14th, 2023, NATO accredited the Space Centre of Excellence (CoE) in Toulouse – at the heart of a valuable space ecosystem – and became NATO’s 29th Centre of Excellence. Its goal is to help the Alliance better understand the Space Domain and leverage insights from the commercial sector and academia. It is derived from NATO’s Space Policy adopted in 2019 and provides Space-related education and training, analysis and lessons learned, concept development and experimentation, as well as doctrine development and standards, covering the 3 operational functions: space Domain Awareness, Operational Space Support and Space Domain Cooperation. Created by General Stéphane Mille for the French Defence and Space Army, and while still in its infancy, the Centre’s mission of providing the catalyst for the understanding, improvement and transformation of the Alliance’s power in space is a key aspect of developing the Alliance’s future capabilities.

The Centre complements the NATO Space Centre in Ramstein, Germany, which acts as NATO’s sole operational hub.

To implement space as an operational domain, the Alliance is developing a Strategic Space Situational Awareness System (3SAS) to look up at space as the Alliance Persistent Surveillance from Space (APSS) will look down at Earth and provide clear picture of what’s happening on the ground. AI will be a milestone in the quantum computing race as the “mother of all battles,” says Grandclément.

According to Colonel Christophe Grandclément, Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (EDT) are looming fast – are they already fully integrated? The response is not yet clear. Are they part of the ACT and STO plan? Yes, completely!

Some technologies are more mature in terms of TRL: quantum sensing, quantum encryption, post-quantum encryption and quantum computing with uses-case by 2027 will enhance the massive calculations of data needed to treat and “clear the ocean like a crystal vase”. The necessity to secure orbit-to-orbit data transit is a distinct challenge as well, and the recent US public tender from SDA demonstrates this.

AI will be also an enabler of such a paradigm shift. And new methods to de-correlate hardware/software development to treat things block-by-block will also help acquisition processes. NATO is counting on space to shift NATO’s governance, from funding sources to acquisition processes of data, software, services and capacities. All the discussions will contribute to defining NATO’s long-term vision for space, feeding into discussions at upcoming NATO Summit in Washington D.C.

Patrice Cross reporting from Toulouse for MilTech