Consider 2% of GDP As Floor, Not Ceiling…

Amid worries over the imminent Russian ‘spring military offensive’ in Ukraine, and other threats overshadowing NATO countries, the Alliance is urging member states to significantly ramp up their military production and increase their budgets, while intensifying contacts with industry. “The current rate of ammunition consumption [in Ukraine] is bigger than the current rate of production. […] We need to produce more,” said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the Defence Ministerial on 15 February.

It’s too early, perhaps, to define NATO’s requests as a call for a return to an economy of war. What is crystal clear, though, is that the issue of replenishing countries’ arms and ammunition stocks emptied by aid sent to Ukraine is extremely serious. The objective is to solidly maintain supplies to support Ukraine, but also to allow members to be able to defend themselves, amid a full-fledged war on Europe’s borders, risks of terrorism and “the challenge that China poses,” Stoltenberg said.

So far, NATO has gathered data on stockpiles and is currently pushing allies to sign new contracts with industry to increase production. Some countries have already responded to the call: among them, France, Germany, Norway and the US have signed contracts.

Besides weapons, NATO is also asking countries to spend more on defence than the 2% of GDP to which the Alliance agreed in 2014. “I think we should move from regarding the 2% as a ceiling to regard the 2% of GDP as a floor, as a minimum,” said Stoltenberg. In addition, the Alliance is starting to rethink future defence planning – details should be disclosed in Vilnius later this year.

Meanwhile, NATO has announced a new initiative to protect critical infrastructure, especially undersea cables and pipelines. The first steps include mapping vulnerabilities and establishing a new coordination cell. Another initiative – Alliance Persistent Surveillance from Space (APSS) – aims to establish a new virtual network of national and commercial satellites.

Ukraine

During the ministerial, NATO’s allies and other countries have committed to sending further weapons to Kyiv, during the meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact group established in Ramstein under US leadership aimed at agreeing on weapons to be sent to Kyiv.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said that Contact group members are supplying Ukraine with tanks, including Challengers from Britain, reconditioned T-72s from several countries, Leopard 2s from Germany and several other countries, and M1A2 Abrams from the US.

The idea of sending Kyiv fighter jets is still up in the air after President Biden said no to the proposals: EU leaders are still discussing the issue. But the situation might change. NATO is monitoring how things evolve and will recommend appropriate actions, was the message sent from the ministerial.

Caterina Tani reporting from Brussels for MON