“War Against Ukraine is Cracking Russian Power”
Amid fears and hopes inspired by the Russia-Wagner Group turmoil, which could potentially favour Ukraine, EU Foreign Affairs ministers increased the EU fund to help Kyiv by an additional €3.5 billion (US$3.8 billion) from the European Peace Facility (EPF) on 26 June, a few days after implementing its 11th package of sanctions against Russia. “It is more important than ever to continue supporting Ukraine, because what has happened during this weekend shows that the war against Ukraine is cracking Russian power and affecting its political system,” commented High Representative Josep Borrell on 26 June in Luxembourg.
Borrell also announced that 24.000 Ukranian soldiers have already been trained from the planned target of 30,000 by year-end, and said that training will likely improve in the future as a result of EPF funding. The overall financial ceiling of the EPF, the EU off-budget instrument to help countries militarily outside the EU, is now €12 billion instead of the initially planned €5.6 billion. The fund has been mainly spent on Ukraine, but will also be used where and when crises around Europe arise.
The bloc is accelerating its efforts at a time when Ukraine is launching its counteroffensive, and while Russia faces a serious rebellion by Wagner Group’s’s leader Yevgeny Prigozin, who, during the last few days, occupied two Russian districts on his march toward Moscow, before stepping down after ‘official’ negotiations with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
While some in the EU claim that the turmoil reveals a deeply weakened Russia, and see it as encouraging for the war in Ukraine, others remain in ‘wait and see’ mode. Indeed, the unpredictability of the situation and the potential internal instability in the Russian Federation that these events bring causes multiple concerns: not simply for management of the massive Russian nuclear arsenal but also because the Wagner Group is involved in military operations in Libya, Syria, the Middle East and Africa – with multiple interests involved. “The most important conclusion is that [in] the war against Ukraine launched by Putin, and the monster that Putin created with Wagner – the monster is biting him now,” Borrell observed. On the other hand, he added, the EU remains vigilant, as “the situation remains complex and unpredictable”.
A similar position was shared by Swedish Foreign Affairs Minister, Tobias Billström: Sweden holds the presidency of the Council until July. He said that it’is “difficult” to read what is happening in Russia, but it might be a sign that “Russia is clearly losing the war against Ukraine [and the EU] should stand by its side”.
Caterina Tani reporting from Brussels for MON
